India Forum Archives
Friday, October 08, 2004
  Myth of The Muslim Vote Bank
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 16 2004, 09:57 AM
I shall analyse the 1999 vs 2004 elections to show the irrelevance of the muslim vote bank and prove that Gujurat was irrelevant G.S
Posted by: bachan Jun 16 2004, 11:57 AM
You have reached conclusions before doing analysis!
Posted by: Viren Jun 16 2004, 12:05 PM
bachan: Your analysis of the conclusion of http://www.india-forum.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=131&st=60&#entry15152 is still awaited. Let's give GS some time and I'm sure he'll deliver. You and I might not agree with his analysis and/or conculsions, but let's give him some space.
Posted by: Prof. Godbole Jun 16 2004, 12:17 PM
Prof Godbole, Maybe you've heard it before, anyway........ Over time you have developed a unique style of hit and run tactics of posting some inflamatory posts and ducking and returning and reviving the died out embers of your flame war. I dont see any useful purpose served by your continued presence in the Forum in this manner. However if you reflect and want to observe proper decorum you can send an e-mail to the Admins to be reinstated after 90 days. OTH you might use the ruse of a nom de plume and register under a false identity. I hope you wont stoop that low. Thanks for your participation so far. Bye or Caio in the new parlance!
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 17 2004, 05:17 AM
Exhibit ---- Delhi ----- Muslims are 10% of Delhi and 50% of these live in Chandni Chowk where they form 35% of the electorate BJP lost Chandni Chowk, However excuding Chandni Chowk, muslims are 5% of the electorate and irrelevant BJP lost 5 other seats in Delhi in hindu super-majority areas Haryana ---- Muslims are 5% of Haryana BJP lost 9 out of 10 seats in Haryana Himachal Pradesh --- Muslims are 2% of Himachal Pradesh and BJP lost all 4 seats here Andhra ------ Muslims are 9% of Andhra and 35% of these live in Hyderabad, where they form 40% of the electorate Excluding Hyderabad, muslims are 6% of the electorate amd irrelevant Excluding Hyderabad, NDA lost in 35 seats in Andhra Running total of BJP losses not due to muslim vote = 53 seats
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 19 2004, 09:05 PM
Andhra ---- Hyderabad, constituency has 40% muslims 1999 --- Majlis Itehadul Muslimeen = 41.36% BJP = 35.74% INC = 18.51% 2004 ---- MIM = 38.39% BJP = 28.25% INC = 25.29 % The Razakar founded MIM has a lock on the muslim votes in Hyderabad and the hindu votes get divided But notice thanks to Hajpayee's muslim kissing, a lot of hindus decided to vote for Congress, instead of wannabe congress of BJP Next notice that in Hyderabad, since muslims are 40%, they are Jihadist and hindus vote for BJP since it is considered an anti-muslim party Note even in 2004, BJP got 28% of the total vote ( or 55% of the hindu vote ) in Hyderabad Overall in Andhra, BJP got 5% of the vote but in Hyderabad, it got 28% of the vote Hence my thesis of the anti-muslim vote bank or Moditva By replicating the Hyderabad experiment or in other words making the rest of AP hindus aware of islamic jihadism. BJP in theory should have a vote bank of 28% all over Andhra, and in the process emerge as the #1 or #2 party in AP Ask why TDP which sunk in lots of govt money into Hyderabad, never puts up a candidate in Hyderabad Reason being ,TDP has a secular image and Hyderabad hindus prefer to vote for an anti-muslim party Also note that the MIM vote did not change much, actually dropped a little in 2004 In 1999, we had kargil, and the polarisation helped BJP win 35% of the vote In 2004 we had Hajpayee imitating congress and BJP vote share dropped to 28%
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 06:31 PM
Assam ------- BJP got 22% of the vote overall However Karimganj, 45% muslim BJP got 34% of the vote, meaning the BJP consolidated 60% of the muslim vote Silchar, 40% muslim BJP got 37% of the vote Kokrajar, 20% muslim NDA won with 70% of the vote Gauhati, 25% muslim BJP got 33% of the vote Mangaldoi, 33% muslim BJP won with 41% of the vote Nowgong, 45% muslim BJP won with 44% of the vote So as we see, whenever muslims concentrate, their Jihadism creates an anti-muslim vote bank, that can be tapped with Moditva
Posted by: Mudy Jun 22 2004, 06:43 PM
GS, Riots season have started in UP. Muslim community as usual started instigating Hindus, we may see violent next 1 year in India.
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 06:45 PM
Bihar ---- Motihari, muslims 20% BJP got 37% of the vote Sitamarhi, 20% muslim BJP got 33% of the vote Darbhanga, 20% muslim BJP got 37% of the vote Araria, 35% muslim BJP won with 33% of the vote Kishengunj, 65% muslim MP = notorious Taslimuddin BJP lost with 31% of the vote Here BJP has achieved 90% hindu consolidation Living next to muslim concentrations creates an automatic BJP vote bank Moditva again Purnea, 35% muslim RJD candidate the notorious Pappu Yadav, despite Muslim-Yadav combo, BJP wins with 34% of the vote Katihar, 35% muslim BJP wins with 41% of the vote Hence even M-Y caste politics can be defeated with Moditva
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 06:49 PM
Gujurat ----- Kutch, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 48% of the vote Ahmedabad, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 55% of the vote Broach, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 44% of the vote Godhra, 18%, muslim, BJP wins with 55% of the vote Moditva again not India shining or Bijli Sadak Pani
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 06:56 PM
Karnataka ------ Bidar, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 38% of the vote Bangalore North, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 41% of the vote Mangalore, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 48% of the vote Udipi, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 47% of the vote Dharwad South, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 51% of the vote Dharwad North, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 48% of the vote Bijapur, 18% muslim, BJP wins with 44% of the vote Overall in karnataka, BJP got 35% of the vote, However we can see a spike up in the muslim concentration zones Moditva again
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 06:58 PM
Mudy, regarding UP riots One of the hindus was beheaded by muslims brazenly in front of an armed cop Mullah Mulayam has asked the cops not to stop muslims Foolish casteist UP walas, ( Even lots of Thakurs and brahmins voted for non-BJP ) will get a taste of Jihad
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:00 PM
Madhya Pradesh --- Bhopal, 20% muslim, BJP won with 65% of the vote Moditva again Overall in the state BJP got 45% In Bhopal, there has been an 80% hindu consolidation
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:06 PM
Maharashtra ----- Thane ( Mumbra , LET ) , 20% muslim, Shivsena wins with 48% of the vote A hindu consolidation of 60% Malegaon, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 37% of the vote Akola, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 43% of the vote Nanded, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 45% of the vote Aurangabad, 20% muslim, Shivsena wins with 52% of the vote Sholapur, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 48% of the vote Moditva again
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:12 PM
Rajasthan ----- Jaipur, 20% muslim, BJP wins with 55% of the vote Alwar, 35% muslim, BJP gets 44% of the vote Bharatpur, 35% muslim, BJP wins with 55% of the vote A hindu consolidation of 80% Moditva again Incidentally, Alwar and Bharatpur are Meo muslim infested areas, an ISI zone and one of Omar Khalidis 'cantons' or proposed 'mini-pakistans' In 1947, 30000 Meos marched on Delhi to massacre hindus and were defeated by a jat caste sena and deported to pakistan The foolish Nehru thanks to pressure from Vinoba Bhave, allowed several lakh of them to return and they have breeded like rats Their women are barefoot, illiterate and pregnant They produce 7 kids each and 98% of their women are illiterate and it is a Taglibi Jamat center Tonk. 20% muslim, BJP wins with 53% of the vote
Posted by: Mudy Jun 22 2004, 07:13 PM
GS, Is there any place where Moditva failed? Specially Bombay?
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:17 PM
Moditva never fails In some cases, the BJP fails to win a seat due to insufficient hindu consolidation However, in virtually all muslim concentration zones, the BJP vote is significantly higher than the state average The muslim vote bank is not cumulative Meaning in most cases, when they cross 20%, their jihadism alienates all hindus A clever campaign tapping into anti-jihadism will never fail In Mumbai, the BJP - did not run a Moditva campaign We had the slimy Pramod Mahajan Instead of Togadia with Pictures of bomb blasts and in Mumbai, muslims are concentrated only in 1 seat Namely where Sunil Dutt won with 51% of votes in a seat 25% muslim Shivsena lost this by getting 45% However this is a hindu consolidation of 60% In Mumbai, the NDA got 45% of the vote and the congress got 50% The main culprit was low turnout of middle class hindus
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:23 PM
Lakshadweep ---- electorate 95% muslim NDA wins
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 22 2004, 07:43 PM
Hindus in general wont vote for a muslim candidate Muslims vote for so called 'secular' candidates What is needed is an awareness campaign that a vote for a 'secular' candidate is the same as a vote for the muslim league
Posted by: Abhijit_ST Jun 23 2004, 09:36 AM
QUOTE
In Mumbai, the NDA got 45% of the vote and the congress got 50% The main culprit was low turnout of middle class hindus
GS, not entirely true. The middle class voted roughly the same % as last time. The slum areas had a larger % vote (but not much). However, the slum areas voted higher % congress. The slum areas (the really dispossessed people - by Mumbai standards at least) are the real anti-incumbency people. so I have hope for the next time. But it is true that BJP-SS did not whip up a storm over the suburban terrorist attacks. There were attacks in Ghatkopar (which voted overwhlmingly for BJP but my Gujju brothers mostly do), Mulund (again voted overwhlmingly BJP - but Mulund always provides 40k lead for BJP that gets more than wiped out in slum areas of chembur and Trombey). It is essential that every terrorist incident be highlighted and constantly kept in media- a very difficult task considering most of the middle class people in Bombay read ToIslamabad or Pakistan Express of Stinker dupatta. Next election, those middle class that did not vote out of a blase' attitude will come out in droves. Mark my words, BJP-SS will sweep at least 4 out of 6 Mumbai seats. Muslim vote bank is not the issue, it can never be a factor in a majority of seats - the issue is the lack of consolidation of Hindu votes - due to a perceived upper caste image of BJP.
Posted by: Kaushal Jun 23 2004, 10:11 AM
QUOTE
the issue is the lack of consolidation of Hindu votes - due to a perceived upper caste image of BJP.
This is the case despite the fact that the Congress leadership has been more elitist upper caste than the BJP. Now the Congress leadership is super upper class with Sonia gandhi as the super PM. It is no coincidence that the Dynasty has managed to enhance its whiteness index over the generations, just as Bollywood insists on white skinned heroines (at least according to Preity Zinta). And among the most elitist upper caste leaders are the Communists almost all of whom are super upper caste. But because BJP is inept in fighting its PR battles it has got stuck with the 'upper caste image'.
Posted by: Gargi Jun 23 2004, 12:10 PM
Tracking riots 12 Confirm dead in Merrut riots started on Friday, 20 June. Muslim stabbed Hindu school kid and another adult Hindu. Score till now 2 Hindus dead 10 Muslim dead Unsecified number injured. Where is NHRC or media.
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 23 2004, 05:27 PM
Dailypioneer Muslim vs Yadav in Siwan Soon after retaining his unquestionable political fiefdom in Siwan for the fourth consecutive time, controversial Rashtriya Janata Dal MP Mohammad Shahabuddin had put it in a couplet form in Delhi - Main dosto ko kabhi bhulta nahi, aur dushmano ko kahi chhota nahi - and, now it appears, what the terror of Siwan says he really means it. At least, the facts and his political opponents believe it so. "At least 14 JD-U supporters are either being killed or beaten up or kidnapped in post-poll violence in Siwan by the goons of the Siwan MP," alleged Leader of Opposition Upendra Kushwaha. Leaders of the CPI-ML and the NDA, too, supported Kushawaha's charge and demanded an immediate end of the ongoing trail of political killings in Siwan. In the last Lok Sabha elections, JD-U candidate Om Prakash Yadav had posed a tough fight against Shahabuddin, who was incarcerated in Siwan jail on a murder charge. Although, the terror of Shahabuddin runs once again in his favour and he won the election by a margin of over one lakh votes, but much to his dismay and dislike his voting percentage declined. Following reports of largescale rigging, booth capturing and voters intimidation by the JD-U candidate, re-poll was ordered on about 500 polling stations by the Election Commission. Nevertheless, the "terror raj" of the RJD candidate runs supreme and he won from behind the bar. Shahbuddin's supporters reportedly had attacked Om Prakash Yadav's house and fired several rounds to celebrate the RJD candidate's victory. Thus, green (RJD's party colour) once again became the colour of terror in Siwan. Harendra Kushawaha, the mukhia of Bhanta Pokhar panchayat, was shot dead on the SDO court premises in Siwan on June 19 at around 10 pm in full public view. Earlier, Kushwaha had survived a murderous attack on him on April 26. "Kushawaha's only fault was that in his panchayat Om Prakash Yadav had bagged more votes than the RJD candidate," said JD-U leader Upendra Kushawaha, adding that the family members of the slain mukhia were so terrified that they even did not dare to lodge an FIR against the murder. Later, on the basis of a report by a local chowkidar, the police registered a case in this regard, he said. The fear stalks in Siwan town over the question of who would be the next target - for holding courage to exercise his democratic right of franchise as per his wish and so defying the don.
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jun 24 2004, 07:04 PM
West Bengal ---- Chandernagar, 30% muslim on BD border, BJP gets 40% of the vote Moditva again If BJP can do 40% all over WB, it can replace the reds
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jul 2 2004, 04:44 PM
Karnataka - Mysore region Here the muslim % is about 5% and BJP lost all seats, since muslims are well below critical mass
Posted by: Kumar Jul 2 2004, 11:17 PM
G.Subramaniam, Very thorough analysis! I always believed that it was divisiveness among us Hindus, which was the cause of lack of BJP’s decisive success as opposed to Muslim vote bank. Hindus wake up and smell the coffee or tea or whatever morning beverage you drink. I am not a dogmatic Hindu myself but to me, fate of India is deeply tied with Hinduism. I strongly believe that a strong/confident Hindu majority is in best interest of all Indians. Only reason we have riots inside India or we have neighbors attacking us with impunity is because we do not have strong/confident Hindu majority in India. The day Secular Nerd majority in India will be replaced by real confident/strong Hindu majority, list of India’s internal/external enemies will shrink dramatically.
Posted by: G.Subramaniam Jul 3 2004, 07:22 AM
Actually in his book 'Colours of violence" by Sudhir Kakkar, he is analysing hyderabad, 40% muslim He says in the absence of the muslim, hindus are jains, reddys, harijans whatever However in the presence of local danger, hindu solidarity starts to emerge My solution is 'Muslim Darshan Yatra" In each constiuency find the castes who do muslim vote banking and send their women on tours of the nearest muslim ghetto where they can see islamic romeos roaming freely and watch the votes shift Example In Andhra, Reddys voted against NDA Solution send Reddy women on guided tours of nearest muslim ghetto and watch the votes shift This is similar to Moditva campaign of 2002 in Gujurat The only reason for voting for NDA as opposed to UPA is protection against islamists and missionaries Hajpayee by his foolish Pakistan peace process and India Shining and appeasement of Bukhari etc lost sight of the main idea
Posted by: Pradeep Jul 8 2004, 10:38 AM
QUOTE
Hajpayee by his foolish Pakistan peace process .........
Subramaniam: While I agree that some of ABV's policies may have been disastrous, I still respect the man enough to beg in his defence that we do not malign his name. Else, we are no better than the TSPians on their unmentionable forum. For all his faults, I still believe ABV meant well and we should not judge him too harshly. OTOH, the Nehru dynasty, particularly JLN really did us in, but that's another story......... Regards, Pradeep
Posted by: Mudy Oct 8 2004, 10:55 AM
http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/oct052004/n15.asp Hindu organisations are up in arms in Haryana against the government’s decision to create a new Muslim dominated district in the state. Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala has announced creation of a new district, named “Satyamewapuram.” It will come into existence from November 1 as the 20th district of the state. The new district has been carved out of the Mewat region of Haryana which is a Muslim-dominated region. The announcement which has come just a few months ahead of the coming Assembly elections in the state is fast acquiring political overtones with Hindu organisations protesting the move. These include the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), the RSS, the Arya Samaj, ‘Sanatan Dharma Sabha’ and the ‘Haryana Gaushala Sangh.’ These organisations are planning elaborate awareness campaigns and protest marches, blockades and dharnas.
 




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