India Forum Archives
Friday, February 20, 2004
  'Good' News Regarding Non-NDA Parties For 04 polls
Posted by: fanne Feb 20 2004, 12:20 AM
Guys, Let me tell me about myself, I want that NDA (led by BJP) should come back to power. Few of the surveys and pointers tell us that indeed that might be the case. But we know how many times these surveyes have been proven wrong. So In this topic let's try to capture all that is going well with non NDA formation - Namely the Congress and it's allies, Communists and SP, BSP RJD etc. For me atleast it will serve as an alarm on what is going right with the 'wrong' parties. Let's capture the news item and the related discussions. Thanks in advance
Posted by: fanne Feb 20 2004, 12:29 AM
Congress president Sonia Manio is on Padyatra, mostly in not so literate part of our country (like Eastern UP and Orissa). I have a feeling she might be drawing mileage from it, where as BJP big wigs have to be 'more' elitist, i.e. adress the janta from a prepared manch. I do not underestimate the power of Road Yatra. In Bihar, Congres + RJD + Ram Vilas Paswan is formidible combination (in term of caste equation). The only advantage BJP has is that of incumbency, but time and again Bihar has proved that caste rules over good goverance (BJP combine had over 25 seats in total of 40 seats, any setback can be ill offorded). BJP should try to get back RVP. In Karnataka, Hedge JD has joined en mass to congress and so has most of the Lingayats leader. How that will play needs more analysis. In Telegana, KRS is joining hand with congree, Does that improove it's chances?? TIA, fanne
Posted by: fanne Feb 20 2004, 12:33 AM
Mudy, appreciate your help in the thread. The post you did is better suited on the generale election thread. Here let's concentrate on what's going RIGHT with non - BJP formations. rgds, fanne
Posted by: Mudy Feb 20 2004, 12:33 AM
I was watching her Pad Yatra(Air conditioned car yatra) on TV. Not more than 25-30 people (mostly same crowd-looks like paid crowd) every where. Which should be disappointing for her. People have very short memory. Her previous yatra never worked, even her natak in Gujarat, copying Indra sitting style didn't worked. I don't think it will work even now.
Posted by: fanne Feb 20 2004, 12:41 AM
Any analysis on what is going on in U.P. ??
Posted by: Mudy Feb 20 2004, 01:01 AM
Mulayam Friday formula will do wonders for BJP. Mulayam will get good number of muslim votes. BSP may disappear during this election, as Kansi Ram is dying and Mayawati will become another Mamata. Cong-I will lose more seats in UP. BJP will gain more seats in UP. Caste will play major role again in this election.
Posted by: Rudra Singha Feb 20 2004, 02:33 AM
chandra sekhar spent his life going on padyatras in Bihar but got to the kursi only due to a fluke. anyone know what he does for a living now ? ill gotten gains still holding out? and where is the Baba of Bhondsi these days?
Posted by: nachiketa Feb 20 2004, 02:56 AM
QUOTE (fanne @ Feb 20 2004, 12:29 AM)
In Karnataka, Hedge JD has joined en mass to congress and so has most of the Lingayats leader. How that will play needs more analysis.
Hmm, I thought Hegde JD was still independent with Mallya taking over the reins?
Posted by: fanne Feb 20 2004, 09:00 PM
Rudra, Sonia will not be as ineffective as Chandrashekhar with her Padyatra and wont be as succesfull as Advani. The deal is how much successfull she will be, where, what effect. Moreover, In Bihar and UP she has to pull enough votes for Mulayam to defeat BJP.... But I guess we should be wait for some more surveyes. Thanks, fanne
Posted by: Viren Feb 20 2004, 10:52 PM
QUOTE (Mudy @ Feb 19 2004, 03:31 PM)
Mulayam Friday formula will do wonders for BJP. Mulayam will get good number of muslim votes.
Is this the Friday formula you mentioned Mudy?http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow/508953.cms Methinks there might be backlash that could hurt Mulla-i-am tongue.gif
Posted by: Mudy Feb 20 2004, 11:21 PM
QUOTE
Methinks there might be backlash that could hurt Mulla-i-am
Oh yes, It will cost him and Congress. Done or undone doesn't matter now. biggrin.gif
Posted by: fanne Mar 3 2004, 12:20 AM
The insiders also said that recent reports by intelligence agencies had indicated that the BJP was not doing well. "One such report by the IB put both the Congress and BJP around the 125 mark. This rattled the party leadership because if they get less seats and the allies get more seats, then the prime ministership could go out of the party's reach. Hence this yatra," said one. http://in.rediff.com/election/2004/mar/02onkar1.htm
Posted by: Prof. Godbole Mar 3 2004, 12:43 AM
Re: Shri. Fanne's post, this bit about "intelligence agencies" making electoral predictions cracks me up. Aren't these guys supposed to keep an eye on the Pakis and Paki inspired troublemakers? Sorry state of the Indian sub-continent I guess. In one country, the intelligence agency runs the damn place. In ours, these polyester safari suit donning sleuths (btw, these guys are so stealthy to detect their IPS manner and haircuts notwithstanding) are busy checking whether the Bucket, Lamp or Hand is going to unseat the Lotus. biggrin.gif On Shri. LKA's yatra, nothing can bring out an absolute majority like a good riot or two despite the "Shining" . Time for the highly successful 'Guj experiment" to be repeated? The route of the yatra should portend what is to come. Lo and behold, a thing here,a thing there and all of a sudden their is "Hindu grievance" to be harvested. I wonder which "intelligence agency" provided the inputs that the NDA was on shaky ground. Just 2 weeks ago wasn't there some news that said "intelligence agencies" predict easy victory for NDA? These guys can't sort out IC 814, Kargil infiltration, etc. but can predict elections! More than these guys, I am interested in knowing what Prof. M.M. Joshi's stars portend with respect to the elections.
Posted by: Sudhir Mar 3 2004, 12:58 AM
Give us a break "Prof" only 'experiment' in Gujarat today is Shitte Muslims marching/praying peacefully in Gujarat while their brethren in Pakistan or Iraq are being killed by sunnis or wahabbis.
Posted by: Mudy Mar 3 2004, 01:07 AM
QUOTE
The insiders also said that recent reports by intelligence agencies had indicated that the BJP was not doing well. "One such report by the IB put both the Congress and BJP around the 125 mark
Onkar Singh aka Mr Cong-I as usual came with his twist or complete opposite. Just two days back IB came with report that they will have 275 seats. Plus see where all oppostion are jumping. One can see trend easily. Prof. IB is doing what it is supposed to do. Good ruler should know what its public is thinking not what some sold out traitors write junk in media.
Posted by: fanne Mar 3 2004, 02:37 AM
Mudy, I also thought that this guy might be a cong I apologist... still I would not expect a correspondent to lie (not to say they don't but I will give them a benefit of doubt, until they unearn my trust). Anyway, I did a quick search and on all the articles that he has written, he does not seam to be a lying person. http://sitesearch.rediff.com/dirsrch/default.asp?MT=onkar%20singh&search=site The basic purpose of this thread was that are we missing the real picture compared to the big picture. The big picture is that BJP and NDA are winning, but what if it's just propoganda. With respect to magazines projecting, weren't they projecting an entirely different picture. The thing is except for UP, where NDA has some hold (BJP got only 29 out of 80 seats), everywhere else it already holds above 80% of seats. It would be hard to repeat that again at all places. (Like MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh Maybe Gujrat) it will be possible to repeat. Maharastra may be dicey, due to cong NCP rule, BJP SS will have an non-incumbency advantage but this time NCP and Cong will fight as one. Bihar is in the same category, Laloo Paswan congress allaince might not let NDA bag 80% seats this time. Orissa and Jharkhand, NDA might loose. AP I have no clue, will TDP and BJP combine have the same advantage, no Kargil wave this time. WB, I expect Mamta-BJP to atbest maintain there position. Two places where BJP should gain is Assam and Karnatka. So it does not look like all is rosy with BJP/NDA. rgds, fanne
Posted by: Mudy Mar 3 2004, 03:01 AM
fanne, Majority of English media's journalist/columinist are not sincere and don't do honest reporting. It is a fact. Who control paper decides strategy and ugly campaign? They provide pointers to writer, if they don't toe masters voice, their articles will not be published and they will lose job. I have pretty good experience watching those jokers. Onion episode in Delhi was well planned event. News paper did pretty good job to make their masters happy. Now same papers have started saying Dengue in Delhi will have same effect as Onion episode but Onion was man made Dengue is not. Rediff belongs to same category or one step ahead. Rediff promotes invasion of India by western forces and calls it honest jounalism. If you read newspaper and compare what type of news Rediff picks for top news. It will tell you what is their agenda. Election is round the corner more twist you will see. Should I believe IB news few days back or Onkar version. Who is the source of his info Advani or Sibal? I and others are waiting for bombshell in newspapers soon against NDA, influenced by western interest. Lok Sabha outcome prediction by Arun Nehru is always accurate. I am eagerly waiting.
Posted by: thalapathi Mar 5 2004, 05:30 AM
News Today: http://www.newstodaynet.com/04mar/ld3.htm TNCC candidates' list expected tomorrow Decks cleared for PC entering fray RADHIKA G Chennai, Mar 4: Congress loyalist Chidambaram, who heads the Congress Democratic Forum (CDF) now, is likely to be fielded as a candidate on behalf of his parent party from the Sivaganga constituency in the coming Lok Sabha polls. 'His contesting is 90 per cent confirmed. He will contest from Sivaganga. He will be expected to merge his party with the Congress after the election', a TNCC coordination committee leader told News Today this morning on his return from Delhi. Chidambaram would also be a star-campaigner for the Congress in the State, he said. Both the AICC and TNCC screening committees had firmed up the list of candidates for submission to the AICC a few days ago, leaving the final decision to the discretion of Congress president Sonia Gandhi. The Congress leaders here are expecting the AICC to make the list public tomorrow in New Delhi. The Congress has been allotted 10 seats by the DPA, led by the DMK. Chidambaram, who has been meeting his own party functionaries in Chennai for the last three days, is leaving for Delhi today. He is expected to meet Sonia Gandhi either today or on the morrow. Chidambaram, according to a source, had held talks on the merger issue and is expected to convey a decision to the Congress chief. He is widely expected to give an assurance on merging his outfit after the elections, enabling his candidature for the 10 May polls. Apart from Chidambaram, some of the leaders whose names are expected to figure in the final list are sitting MP Mani Shankar Aiyar in Myladuthurai, former TNCC president E V K S Elangovan in Gobichettipalayam and former Union Minister R Prabhu in the Nilgiris. Chidambaram's candidature in Sivaganga is expected to give heartburns to certain quarters in the party, dashing as it is the hopes of Congress leader Sudarshan Nachiappan. Among the other seats, Salem has former presidents of the party in the race with K V Thangkabalu in the lead. M P Subramaniam and Tindivanam Ramamurthy are also seeking the ticket, lobbying for Vanniyar representation. Periyakulam is being sought by minority community representatives in the party. J M Haroon, a prominent Muslim candidate. is lobbying for the seat with TNCC president G K Vasan's support. Also in the race are the party's literary wing leader Idayathullah and a lawyer from Madurai, Fowsia, who is camping in Delhi. In Dindigul, former MP N S V Chittan, leads the aspirants. His candidature has the backing of many leaders in view of his being a representative of the Thevar community. Tirunelveli has four leaders keeping their fingers crossed. H Vasantha Kumar, who belongs to the business wing of the party, has the backing of his brother and former TNCC president Kumari Anandan and a few others. However, Vasan is rooting for Dhanushkodi Adityan while Rani Venkatesan, a prominent woman candidate from Tiruchendur, has the backing of Elangovan. Peter Alphonse is another hopeful there. Palani and Rasipuram are the two constituencies where decision-making seems to have been a difficult task for the party. Venugopal Senapathi is a leading hopeful in Palani, while Rasipuram, which has the largest number of applicants (140) in view of it being a reserved seat, has not thrown up any clear favourite among the aspirants.
Posted by: bachan Apr 1 2004, 11:14 PM
fanne has a point. bjp has lost allies since NDA in 1999, and is now allied only with TDP, AIADMK, shiv sena, biju janata dal and samata party, plus a few small players. it did well in andhra, maharashtra, orissa and bihar last time, so it can increase only a bit and decrease a lot. the only hope is in MP, rajasthan and chatisgarh, but remember BJP did well there in 1999 also. maybe karnataka although krishna govt. is popular. UP looks bad, won't go much higher, maybe lower with SP and BSP gaining. best case scenario is maintaining present position. atal wave might help but as fanne said, gains will be made in areas BJP is already strong. NDTV poll gives some hope for BJP, but even the best case scenario is marginal gains for NDA.
 




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